WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year.

And any downturn would likely result from an external shock — such as a conflict involving China — rather than from domestic economic factors such as higher interest rates.

But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% — above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target — through 2024.